Seeing through fear and seizing the opportunity

Fibo Quantum

  • Ethereum breaks the extended long term bearish trend against Bitcoin.
  • The market aims to rest after several constructive weeks.
  • XRP has an opportunity defy the general tone and surge.

 

Alarmist headlines dominate the media in the last working session of the week, talking about morning falls in the cryptocurrencies market.

With fear in my heart, I turned on the screens to find myself in a scenario in which prices are doing what some – or at least I – expected them to do. 

In the days before that the attack, the BTC/USD pair already made it clear that it lacked strength in its attack on the SAM200. Wednesday left a figure halfway between a Doji and a hanging man, all a forewarning that the attempt was not reliable.

Ethereum is were I am surprised more. After yesterday’s statements by the CFTC Chairman Heath Tarbert categorizing Ether as a commodity, I expected a positive reaction. But it is trading at $186, above the $180 resistance level that only four days ago it sought to beat. Not bad, huh?

About Mr Tarbert’s announcement on Thursday, I want to emphasize that he classified Ether like Gold – or Cocoa – rather than place it in the trash categories of gambling, scams or incredible adventures. 

Sometimes it is just as important what you do not say as what you do say.

After analyzing the charts, I see that the positive movement of the Top Altcoins – especially Ethereum against Bitcoin – loses some momentum after more than a month of relative valuation increases against King Bitcoin.

 

ETH/BTC Daily Chart

The ETH/BTC pair loses a degree of bullish momentum and may plateau. Next week’s consolidation moves may take the price to the 0.0212 level. 

The weekly chart (see weekly chart) points to the 0.030 level first and 0.040 below. The main moving averages in the weekly range move at these valuation levels. Analyzing this medium/long term chart, I see that the ETH/BTC pair has broken the upward bearish trend born at the June 2017 highs – it changes everything.

In the new scenario it has entered, the upper limit is at 0.060, while on the downside it would find support at around 0.012.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.029, then the second at 0.025 and the third one at 0.0266.

Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.022, then the second at 0.0205 and the third one at 0.0188.

The MACD on the daily chart maintains a full-term profile, although suggesting a slight downtrend. The distance between the lines is nil and makes it difficult for us to see any significant movements.

The DMI on the daily chart sends a clear signal of a loss of bullish momentum. The bulls cross down the ADX line and activate the bearish scenario. This indicator does not provide information about the depth of future movement. Bears do not react to the signal and remain at minimum levels.

 

BTC/USD Daily Chart

BTC/USD is currently trading at $8,354 and risks losing the $8.350 support level. The failure of the recent attempt to cross the SMA200 bullish forces a price downward for seeking buying strength at lower prices.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $8,840, then the second at $9,150 and the third one at $9,600.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $8,350, then the second at $8,190 and the third one at $8,000.

btcusd

The MACD on the daily chart crosses up from considerably harmful levels. Today’s price drop makes moving averages less inclined and raises an extension of the consolidation phase.

The DMI on the daily chart shows how the bears continue to lose strength at the same rate as the bulls gain it. The meeting between both sides of the market will take place between Sunday and next Monday. This encounter will bring an increase in volatility in the price of Bitcoin.

ETH/USD Daily Chart

ETH/USD is currently trading at the $185.9 price level and is currently losing support for the EMA50. The moving averages situation proposes a volatile scenario, with the EMA50 and SMA200 showing a bullish profile and the SMA100 a bearish pattern. In the next two weeks, we are likely to see sudden direction changes in the price.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $190, then the second at $195 and the third one at $200.

Above the current price, the first support level is at $180, then the second at $170 and the third one at $165.

ethusd

The MACD on the daily chart shows that after the moving averages reach the zero level of the indicator, they lose strength.

 

XRP/USD Daily Chart

XRP/USD is trading at the price level of $0.268 and adds up to two days of declines after failing to beat resistance at $0.28. XRP has been in an uptrend for almost three weeks after the low of $0.21 on September 24.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.27, then the second at $0.282 and the third one at $0.285.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.265, then the second at $0.258 and the third one at $0.253.

xrpusd

The MACD on the daily chart shows a loss of both bullish inclination and openness between the lines. The quick average is on the positive side of the oscillator, while the slow average is below. The short term proposal is sideways.

The DMI on the daily chart shows the bulls still above the ADX line, which keeps the previous bullish trend active. The bears, on the other hand, increase the intensity of their trend strength and dangerously approach the ADX line, threatening the leadership of the bulls.

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