- Huge movements of capital between wallets indicate that preparations are made on the battlefield.
- The general weakness invites thoughts of new lows.
- Both sides of the market are hesitant in the short term.
For several days now we have been receiving notifications of very high volume movements that raise capital from cold wallets to the open market. Whales are accumulating ammunition. We can be at the gates of crucial moves.
Start the day by taking a look at the graphics of the main actors on the Crypto board and the feeling I have is a mixture of excitement and doubt. Excitement because thanks to my experiences as a “Scalper” I am in love with volatility. In Doubt because I am aware that we do not know the lower limits of the current bear market.
Why do I say this? The first thing that came to mind when looking at the charts is that it is very likely that we will see new lows in the next few hours. Everything is aligned to make it happen.
First of all, we have several indicators crossed up, which will have triggered a considerable amount of purchases. Many of these purchases in the minimum price zone will have, as it should be, protection stops. If the market falls to new lows, this Stop Orders will accelerate the fall.
Secondly, we see that the chart structures are divergent with the indicators. These types of scenarios are very prone to break levels as there is scope to do so without undoing the bullish moment.
Finally, because it is now relatively cheap and straightforward to shake the hands of less experienced HODLers and collect their Cryptos at discount prices.
This scenario of new lows may offer us opportunities to buy at the same prices as the whales, but to do so, we must think like them.
The key idea for the next few days could be that in the moments of greatest fear is when the best opportunities appear.
The BTC/USD is currently trading at the $3.819 price level. A close below this level could bring the BTC/USD price back to annual lows.
Moving averages continue to point downwards and leave plenty of room for the continuation of the current bearish momentum.
Below the current price, the first support level is at $3,466 (annual lows). A few dollars below this level should be the Stops of protection of recent purchases. If the BTC/USD pierces this Stops level, the second support level is at $3,275 (price congestion support). Once we reach this new annual low, the clear bearish target would be to drill the critical $3,000 level, for which the third level of support at $2,890 (price congestion support) would be perfect.
To reverse this bearish forecast the BTC/USD must first beat the resistance level at $3,929 (price congestion resistance). This price level signals the border with a side scenario in the short term. The second resistance level is at a confluence of barriers between $4,030 (EMA50), $4,174 (SMA100) and $4,400 (price congestion resistance). If it reaches this price level, the BTC/USD would be in an excellent position to overcome the third resistance level at $4,921 (price congestion resistance). To state this scenario as bullish, the BTC/USD needs to exceed the $5,300 price level.
The MACD at 240- Minutes shows a small downtrend that supports the weakness we see today. The structure is more suited for a bullish cross than a bearish acceleration. The whole structure of the last few days is divergent with the price path. Let’s not lose sight of the fact that, in the daily range, this indicator signals upwards.
The DMI at 240- Minutes shows us once again that the bulls are withdrawing quickly while the Bears return to take height. The trend force, represented by the ADX, continues to decrease and fully enters into levels considered to be the absence of an ongoing trend.
The XRP/USD is currently trading at the $0.343 price level (price congestion support). If the XRP/USD closes below this price level, it will increase the chances of seeing new relative lows, although it would be difficult to see annual lows.
Below the current price, the first support level is $0.323 (relative minimum). If the XRP/USD reaches this level, it is very likely to move to the next support level at the $0.32 price level (price congestion support). The second support level is $0.298 (price congestion support). The third support level is $0.272 (price congestion support).
Above the current price, the first resistance for the XRP/USD is at the $0.367 price level (EMA50 and price congestion resistance). From this price, there is a significant price jump to the next resistance level at $0.413 (price congestion resistance). Luckily the XRP/USD could rely on the SMA100 at the $0.393 price level. The third resistance level is at $0.429 (price congestion resistance).
The MACD at 240-Minutes remains very flat with both lines virtually at the same level. It does not have the bearish slope we have seen in the BTC/USD.
The 240-Minute DMI shows us how bulls retreat in the last few hours. The bears remain at higher levels of activity although they also retreat. It seems that neither side of the market has a clear short-term view.
The ETH/USD is quoted at $107.6 (congestion support). The apparent weakness of the Crypto market puts the goal of breaking the $100 within reach of the bears.
Below the current price, the first support is at $100.97 (annual lows). If the ETH/USD moves towards this support level and it resists, the signal to the market would be positive reinforcement. If it loses this line and we see the ETH/USD trading below the $100 level a new scenario of bearish acceleration would open up. The second support level is at $94.5 (price congestion support). The third support level is at $81.3 (price congestion support).
Above the current price, the first resistance level is a confluence of barriers between $115 (EMA50), $121.5 (SMA100) and the price level of $124 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is well above $155 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $160 (SMA200).
The MACD at 240-Minutes is a very flat profile. The lines are crossing down so a bearish acceleration would not have resistance. On the other hand, a bullish attempt if it would have any difficulty as it should occur the crossing of lines and then the pass into the bullish zone of this indicator.
The 240-Minute DMI shows the Bears ahead of Bulls. Vendors move above level 20. The Bulls, on the other hand, retreat and return below the signal level. The ADX is also at minimum trend levels and indicates a drop in XRP/USD volatility.