- BTC/USD is in a key technical scenario.
- The dominant pessimism is likely to turn upside down.
- ETH/USD rejects leadership again and the market languishes.
The weekend is approaching without significant changes among the main protagonists of the Crypto board. I am reviewing the dominant emotional state in social networks and pessimism rules. The gloom sets an optimal atmosphere for a change in the direction of the market.
Extreme pessimism is the antagonist of the blind euphoria we saw exactly a year ago. This melancholy crushes the psyche of the HOLDers, but should not do so in the minds of traders. For a trader, the direction of the market must be secondary.
This extremely depressing environment covers with anxiety the ability to look at the market and make the right decisions. The task of an analyst is to provide a clear picture of the current scenario that will help investors in the process of managing their portfolios.
Seeking to offer this service, today I will analyze the graphs of Bitcoin, Ripple and Ethereum represented in logarithmic scale. This type of representation helps analyze very volatile assets with wide ranges.
BTC/USD Daily Logarithmic Chart
BTC/USD trades at the price level of $3,362. The price has reached the trend line that governs the movement of the BTC/USD for years, and therefore we are facing a decisive moment. We can see if we review the graph. In recent years the price of Bitcoin has moved below the line on several occasions, to return to rising above it again.
Below the current price, the first support level is at $3,275 (price congestion support and very long-term uptrend line). The second support level is at $3,177 (long-term bearish trend line). The third support level is at $2,890 (price congestion support). Regarding this third level of support, I find it very improbable that it can be reached in the next few days because it would take an extraordinary sales force to break the two intermediate supports.
Above the current price, the first serious resistance level is at $3,925 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is at $4,390 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $4,693 (EMA50), a critical level from which we could start to speak of an upward turn.
The MACD in the daily range shows a perfect profile for an upward movement. After moving to extreme harmful levels, it draws a bullish divergence and crosses over to the upside. It is bullish according to the manuals, but the current situation can generate even more extreme movements.
The DMI in the daily range shows the bulls increasing their activity since the arrival of the price to the current zone. It is, therefore, a shopping area. The bears, on the opposite, should think the same as they have been decreasing their strength to approach the current levels.
XRP/USD Daily Logarithmic Chart
XRP/USD is currently trading at the $0.306 price level after failing to conquer the first resistance level at $0.32 yesterday. After this failed attempt the XRP/USD came down for support at the $0.30 price level and found it. These are now the warning levels for this pair.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is $0.32 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is at $0.345 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $0.370 (price congestion resistance) and is very important if the XRP/USD beats it, which would allow an attack on the EMA50 at $0.394 and enter into a neutral scenario at least.
Below the current price, the first support level is $0.30 (price congestion support). The second support level is $0.271 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $0.258 (price congestion support and annual lows).
The MACD in the daily range shows such a perfect bullish cross profile that I doubt it can be real and work. It is likely that we will see a downward rejection of this indicator in the next few days.
The DMI in the daily range shows us how neither bulls nor bears have changed their expectations when reaching this price range. The ADX shows a loss of trend strength in the last few sessions.
ETH/USD Daily Logarithmic Chart
The ETH/USD trades at the $89.3 price level. Yesterday it tried to breach the $95 resistance level but failed. The Ethereum has all the attention on it for his condition of the leader in bull markets and his current weakness worries analysts.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $95 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is at $125 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $144 (EMA50).
Below the current price, the first support level is at $80.5 (price congestion support). The second support level is at $69 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $53 (price congestion support).
The MACD in the daily range also shows a bullish manual structure. I am amazed at the clarity of the structure when compared to the perceived pessimistic environment.
The DMI in the daily range shows bulls unconvinced of a possible upward change in the price path. The bears, for their part, have decreased a little in intensity but remain at very high levels.
To sum up the situation, if you have reached these levels without being pushed to sell, there is nothing right now to tell us that this market is irrecoverable — nothing to give us reasonable cause.
If you are thinking about buying, the levels are adequate not for the price but because the loss of any support level can give us the signal to execute stops and conserve capital to enter lower prices if we get to see them.
Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.